Tropical Storm Risk, the London-based climate and risk forecasting consortium, said today in a new prediction that there is a greatly increased chance of hurricanes hitting the United States this storm season. TSR in its early August outlook said it expected Atlantic basin activity to be about 80 percent above the 1950-2007 long-term norm. Now the consortium said it has raised its forecast for U.S. landfalling activity to 150 percent above norm. The hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, with tomorrow being the peak point in hurricane climate activity.
TSR’s updated outlook includes:
- A 97 percent probability of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season, only a 3 percent probability of a near-normal season, and no chance of a below-normal season.
- An expectation of 18 tropical storms for the Atlantic basin as a whole, with 10 of these being hurricanes and 5 of these being intense hurricanes. To date there have been 10 tropical storms with five of these being hurricanes and three intense hurricanes; the climate norm numbers for the whole season are 10, 6 and 3, respectively.
- An expectation of seven tropical storm strikes on the United States, of which four will be hurricanes. (To date there have been 4 tropical storm strikes of which 2 were hurricanes; the climate norm numbers for the whole season are 3.1 and 1.5 respectively).
Adam Lea, a TSR Research Fellow, commenting on the 2008 hurricane season so far and TSR’s updated outlook said, “Atlantic basin hurricane activity so far has been 100 percent above norm. This ranks 2008 as the seventh most active hurricane year to date since 1950.” He added, “TSR believes this high activity is due to a combination of weaker than normal trade winds over the Caribbean Sea and tropical North Atlantic and to warmer than normal sea waters between West Africa and the Caribbean. TSR anticipates a continuation but slight decrease in above-norm activity during September and October.” TSR is led by the Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre at University College London.