October Expected To Be Busy Hurricane Month

With Subtropical Storm Laura fading away over the cold waters of the North Atlantic, hurricane forecasters expect October to be a very active hurricane month with possibly one major hurricane predicted over the next couple of weeks.

Researchers from Colorado State University said today they believe this month will produce “well above average hurricane activity,” in line with predictions for a very active hurricane season.

Phil Klotzbach and William Gray, who head up the research team at the university, said they expect to see a total of three named storms in October. Two are expected to become hurricanes, with one becoming a major hurricane of Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale, meaning sustained winds will reach or exceed 111 mph.

“We expect the month of October to be quite active,” said Mr. Klotzbach, lead author of the hurricane forecast, in a statement. “We continue to observe low sea level pressures and warm sea surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic. A combination of these two factors typically leads to an active October.”

“We predict that October will be quite active based on climate signals through September,” said Mr. Gray. “There has been a strong clustering of hurricane activity around mid-July and late August-early September. We think we are now entering a new period of heightened activity that is likely to go for another two to three weeks.”

The researcher’s full-season forecast, revised in August, calls for a total of 17 named storms in the Atlantic, nine of which will become hurricanes, with five of those becoming intense hurricanes. To date, there have been six hurricanes with three becoming intense.

On Monday, the National Weather Service announced the formation of Subtropical Storm Laura with sustained winds that topped off at 60 mph. The storm never threatened the United States and dissipated today over the cold waters of the North Atlantic. Laura was the twelfth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season that extends through Nov. 30.

For U.S. insurers, the most damaging storms this season have been Hurricanes Gustav and Ike, which hit in August and September, respectively. Risk modelers’ estimates for insured losses for Gustav ranged from $2 billion to $10 billion, while insured losses from Ike ranged from $6 billion to $12 billion.

Hurricane Ike hit the Texas coast on Sept. 13, doing tremendous damage to the Galveston area. The affects from Ike have been extensive. The U.S. Geological Survey reported yesterday that runoff caused by the storm has contaminated the waters of Lake Michigan affecting the shoreline of northwestern Indiana and Chicago.